Showing posts with label oil slowdown cuts world price for oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil slowdown cuts world price for oil. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

What’s Behind the Falling Price of Oil?...Oh Yeah, Falling DEMAND, of Course!







This is for all those nitwits who cried that “George Bush and his oil buddies were behind the rising price of oil,” over the past few years!

Dopey people believe dopey things.

You only have to look to the “9-11 Truthers” for proof of that.

Oil spiked to a record high (close to $150/barrel) earlier this year on China’s stockpiling oil ahead of the Bejing Olympic Games. That DEMAND, along with that generated by the rapid industrialization of developing nations, most notably, India and China, had driven the global price of oil, which is ALWAYS predicated on SUPPLY and DEMAND, inexorably upwards over the past decade.

Yesterday, according to Bloomber News, “Crude oil fell in New York on speculation that declining fuel demand because of the global economic recession will outweigh cutbacks in output by OPEC.

“Crude pared yesterday’s 10 percent gain, which came after Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said the kingdom had delivered the reductions promised to the producer group. Initial jobless claims in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer, surged more than forecast last week to a 26-year high.

“If you look at the overall big picture, the demand collapse is still the overriding issue,” said Tony Nunan, an assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. “What producers can do is break the momentum of the fall but getting this thing back up is going to be tough.”

In fact, global oil demand is expected to decline slightly in 2008 and 2009, for the first drop in a generation, as the most severe economic crisis since the late 1970s pinches consumption across the developed world.

According to a Reuters poll of 11 industry analysts, banks and industry groups, worldwide demand will decline by 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) in both 2008 and 2009 to 86.03 and 86.01 million bpd respectively.

Even that slight fall is a huge shift from an August Reuters poll of experts, which forecast that demand would increase by nearly 1 million bpd next year.

The global demand for crude oil has not declined since the early 1980s, following the 1979 oil crisis and a severe recession in the United States.

SUPPLY and DEMAND...that’s what increases the price of oil and it’s what decreases it as well.

Governments and politicians have virtually NO/ZERO impact on commodities prices. Sure, governmental policies (like the U.S. refusing to drill for much of its estimated 1.6 TRILLION barrels of domestic crude oil) can impact supply and demand, but outside of impacting supply and demand, there is no way for politicians or speculators to increase or decrease the price of ANY given commodity.
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Falling oil prices have drastically reduced inflation, especially here in the U.S. and that's GOOD for Americans. Of course, not everyone's happy about that. The same Luddites who've fought against America drilling for more of its own HUGE domestic supply, are now appalled at falling oil and gas prices and are busy lobbying for higher gasoline taxes...deliberately to harm the same Americans they so often claim to care about.
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Again, dopey people tend to believe in and support dopey things.
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