Thursday, October 23, 2008

Michael Medved’s Challenge







In a recent Townhall article, Michael Medved offers a serious challenge to disaffected Conservatives, such as myself, as to why an Obama victory may incur lasting, perhaps irreversible changes to both our economy and the political landscape that no future Conservative would be able to undo.

It’s an interesting piece and deserves to be read and considered, so here it is;


The Lasting Damage An Obama Presidency Could Do

Any disgruntled conservatives who think an Obama win would "teach the GOP a lesson" should think again!

For Conservatives, Obama's Changes Would Be Permanent and Devastating



Some conservative activists, despairing (prematurely) about the chances for victory on November 4th, argue that an Obama win could be a blessing in disguise. According to this logic, The One would occupy the White House for only One term and whatever big government, liberal programs he managed to enact could be swiftly repealed by some future "true conservative" champion.
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[C]onservatives need to face the fact that Barack Obama has promised profound systemic changes that will be irreversible—absolutely permanent alterations of our economy and government where there is no chance at all that Republican office-holders of the future could in any way repair the damage.
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Presidents may come and go, but entitlements are forever. New government give-aways may accomplish nothing constructive but they’re all but impossible to eliminate once they’re up and running.
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He will also get the chance to appoint at least two, and perhaps as many as four new justices to the Supreme Court of the United States. All legal observers expect Obama’s nominees to embrace an even more activist, leftist view of the Constitution and legal system than Clinton’s appointees, Breyer and Ginzburg. The damage from the remaking of the court could prove incalculable.
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Finally, and perhaps most fatally, a President Obama will radically revamp our already broken immigration system and permanently remake the country, politically and demographically.
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That’s the biggest threat of an Obama presidency: the creation of vast new groups of dependent Americans who will comprise an unassailable new coalition that will enjoy iron control of our politics for a generation or more. If you start with newly legalized immigrant voters (with as many as 10 million new Democrats totally beholden to Obama and company) and then add the beneficiaries of government pre-school, the new nursery school teachers, the recipients and administrators of federal health insurance, federal college grants, the businesses who’ll enjoy the $150 billion in promised subsidies for “alternative energy,” the companies and employees of the vast increases in “infra-structure” spending (lots more bridges to nowhere), the non-tax payers who will suddenly receive a $1,000 per household check (under the guise of “refundable tax credit,” and many, many more. In his first years in office, a President Obama could easily succeed in buying so many interest groups and constituencies with expensive new governmental favors, that conservative dreams of rebuilding a small government majority will go absolutely nowhere.

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The conservative movement, and the survival of a viable small-government faction in American politics, depends upon a McCain victory in November. A triumph for Barack Obama, combined with Democratic gains in both House and Senate, could easily usher in a dark new era with decades of corrupt, welfare-state, bureaucratic leftist rule.
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Any conservative sitting out this election or voting for Obama should have their head examined!
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WoW!

Mr. Medved makes many strong points.

First, I am not at all enthused about John McCain’s candidacy, not at all. Never have been, not even when I accepted his inevitability as the GOP's candidate last Spring.

I have seriously considered voting for Bob Barr and here in New York, that’s hardly a vote that’s going to help decide a close race in a swing state.

If I DID live in PA or OH, or FL, then I’d probably seriously consider holding my nose to vote for John McCain, as he is infinitely preferable to Barack Obama.

But that’s “infinitely preferable” on a personal, NOT a policy level.

I firmly believe that (1) with a Democratic Congress, led by the likes of Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Charles Rangel, neither of these candidates will be able to do much to stem the already Keynesian tendencies of the current Congress and (2) that neither of the two current candidates offers anything other than more of the same Keynesian policies that have failed us over the past two years and are sure to fail us even more dramatically in the years to come.

We’ve seen the effects of the Keynesian Pelosi-Reid Congress over the past 22 months, as the economy has taken a decided turn for the worse.

The fact that all too many Americans have been dissuaded from placing the blame for the worsening economy on that Congress, and for the current credit crisis on the likes of Chris Dodd, Barney Frank and Barack Obama (who’s taken the most money over the last 20 years from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, doing that in less than 4 years) all of whom have supported the turbo-charged CRA (Community Reinvestment Act) that FORCED private banks to offer all those subprime loans, is indeed tragic in that it seems to support the old axiom that “we tend to get exactly the kind of government we deserve.”

In short, far too few Americans are paying attention YET.

As to Michael Medved’s assertion that an Obama administration may do such irreparable harm or change the political landscape to such a degree, that it will be unrecognizable, and thus unredeemable to any future Conservatives, I can only say that I have my doubts.

The current global credit crisis is a crisis is a crisis born of OVER-regulation (it was the expanded CRA that MANDATED subprime loans by law), so, in that regard, the Gramm-Leach-Bailey Act and the Commodities Futures Modernization Act (2000) only exacerbated an existing problem or flaw, by allowing Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) to be traded in derivatives trading. The breaking up of numerous mortgage obligations into a hodge-podged “mortgage-backed securities,” further complicated the problems associated with those high-risk loans, by making it virtually impossible to accurately value such “mortgage-backed securities.”

BUT the primary problem, the ROOT CAUSE of the crisis is the explosion of subprime loans and that was mandated by the Rep. Barney Frank and Sen. Chris Dodd led revamped CRA. And while it’s true that both Fannie and Freddie both bribed and intimidated (promising to pump campaign money into districts where sitting pols supported the Bush/McCain regulation of those GSEs), it was Dodd, Obama and Frank who took the bulk of the monies from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and served as their point-men against federal oversight.

The fact that that is now being spun as a “failure of the markets,” is as pernicious as it is pathetic.

As the crisis deepens and worsens, people are going to care enough to want the right answers and where I disagree with Mr. Medved is that believe “It’s NEVER too late.”

In fact, when Keynesianism failed under Carter, that was undone within a year and supplanted by Supply Side policies that lowered the Misery Index steadily over Reagan’s two terms.

Likewise, the Supply Side policies that served us well for a quarter century were undone virtually overnight when the Pelosi-Reid Congress took power in January 2007.

The fact that G W Bush signed onto and virtually endorsed many of those Keynesian policies does NOT make them a “bipartisan policy,” as far more Republicans oppose them as do Democrats...in fact, Conservatives, BOTH Democrat and Republican have largely opposed the fiscally irresponsible Keynesian policies of Pelosi-Reid.

As to re-making the demographics of this country in short-order, I also disagree with that. First, illegal immigration has not only been halted but reversed by the current downturn in our economy. It is extremely doubtful that the next administration, even if it does open our borders, will be able to do much to change America’s demographics, as we seem to be approaching what many anticipate to be a long recession, some have said, “the longest since the Great Depression,” given the breadth and depth of the losses.

All of that suggests to me that an impatient American people are not going to stand for more than a couple of years of double digit Misery Indexes without acting.

That means, that by 2010, we may see a move back to Supply Side policies with a vengeance, BUT only IF they are championed by ardent, passionate and eloquent spokesman (like the late Milton Friedman and the GREAT Newt Gingrich)...let’s hope for America’s sake such advocates emerge, either from the Conservative Dems or the Conservative wing of the GOP.

For now, the GOP has gotten itself into trouble by abandoning the policies that WORKED! So, why reward a candidate (McCain) who has NOT been a supporter of Supply Side policies and hasn't been able to articulate why those policies are so infinitely better than the Keynesian ones that led to an implosion under Jimmy Carter.

Newt Gingrich forced federal spending cuts on a very reluctant Bill Clinton and those cuts resulted in “the lowest Misery Index in over forty years” (1998’s 6.05) and the budget surpluses at the end of Clinton’s tenure.

Since Gingrich left, no Republican has had that kind of coherent vision and the GOP has paid a terrible and deserved price for that!

No, while I respect Michael Medved’s eloquence and acknowledge that he makes a very strong case for the kinds of calamities an Obama administration would inflict on America, I do not agree that ANY of it would be “irreversible,” but that's merely my own opinion on the matter.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Life’s a Lot LESS Miserable...With a GOP Congress







Is life better for people when the generally more fiscally Conservative Republicans run Congress?

It certainly seems to be.

To date, Arthur Okun’s Misery Index, adding the inflation rate to the unemployment rate) remains one of the best economic snapshots available to us, for how the economy is treating the people.

What I’ve done is to take two twelve-year periods, one set in which the Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress and another in which the GOP controlled both Houses.

I took the most recent periods for both Parties in which they each controlled both Houses.

For the Democrats, I took 1978 thru 1980, 1987 thru 1994 and 2007, and for the GOP, I took 1995 thru 2006.

The results are stark.

The Democrats twelve-year average is 11.7 compared to 7.6 for the GOP years! Moreover, 60% of the Democratic years were in the double digits, compared to 0% for the GOP!

That’s right 0%!

In fact, over that period, the only two years were significantly below double-digits (1994 and 2007) the first fueled, in part by the “peace dividend” and the second (2007) coming amidst the revenue boosting “Bush tax cuts of 2001.

More damning still, is that every year the Republicans controlled both Houses of Congress, their Misery Indexes beat the Democrat’s 2nd best year (1994’s 8.7)...the worst Misery Index under GOP tenure was 8.5 in 2005! Including 1998's "LOWEST Misery Index in over forty years" (6.05).

Ouch, those Liberal policies really do hurt!

Sweden the Violent? Who Knew???


















Thanks to Swedish blogger Pela at GUMMIHUND.

SEE: http://gummihund.blogspot.com/2008/10/ok-im-nagging-but-once-again.html


Remember how Sweden used to be the model that American Leftists pointed to as “how democratic socialism could work?”

Well, it seems as though there’s a good reason why Sweden has fallen off their radar screen.

Aside from suffering some of the same economic problems that have plagued France and Germany, Sweden is, like many Western European countries, awash in violent crime.

The following Swedish crime stats come from Sweden’s National Council for Crime Prevention.
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In 2003 New York City had: 591 homicides - Sweden had 189.
NY City had 1789 rapes - Sweden had 2565.
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NYC had 18764 aggravated assaults - Sweden had 65175.
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NYC had 29207 burglaries, Sweden had 122700.
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It should be noted that NYC has almost 1.5 times the population than does all of Sweden.
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Pela asks, “If Sweden were a city; where would you choose to live?

“And I promise you that the numbers have not gone down here since then!”

Pela notes:("About the murder rates- you have to keep in mind that it is very hard to get someone convicted for murder here in Sweden. Most killers are just sentenced for manslaughter and those convictions are not listed under homicides.")


What all of this has reinforced is the fact that Good intentions, count for very little. In fact, when well intentioned social programs seek to GIVE the poor all they need, they also rob those people of any incentive to produce and prosper or even be responsible human beings in any way.

It seems as though Sweden is going through a lot of what New York City went through in the 1970s, and are apparently about to go through again!

WHY?

Well, at least one reason is that many misguided Leftists here believe (or perhaps just WANT to believe) that places like France, Denmark and Sweden are all "socialist paradises" compared to the USA.


Maybe the truth will set more people free.


H/T and THANKS to Pela at Gummihund
http://gummihund.blogspot.com/2008/10/ok-im-nagging-but-once-again.html

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Liberals and the MSM Assail Yet Another Average Joe







One of the more ironic twists in the current election season has been the Liberal mainstream media or MSM (a/k/a “friend of the working class") assailing every working person in sight!

When McCain failed to nominate “another rich white guy” (the media’s set attacks for Romney, Lieberman or Giuliani), they went apoplectic over Sarah Palin.

These so-called “friends of the working people” weren’t so friendly to one of our own.

I wonder why...Oh wait, no I don’t, it’s the ideology.

When the MSM found that its sliming was not having the intended effect, they retreated to, “It’s all about McCain.”

Now the race has been impacted by yet another “average Joe,” a plumber from Ohio named Samuel Joseph “Joe” Wurzelbacher, over an exchange between the plumber and Barack Obama, when the Presidential nominee was campaigning for votes on Mr. Wurzelbacher’s street.

“Joe the Plumber” told Barack Obama he didn’t much care for his tax plan, expressing his own aspirations to one day own the plumbing company he works for, upon which Barack Obama began to expound upon the “need to spread the wealth around.”

So, what was the response by a once chastened MSM and the Obama camp?

Perhaps a serious consideration of why so many relatively low income, wage-earners oppose redistributionist programs designed ostensibly to “help them?”

Not a chance.

Remember, not many in the MSM or in politics took a lot of math, so logic isn’t their strong suit.

But if you said, “How about reverting to form and sliming Joe Wurzelbacher like he was a red-headed Sarah Palin?”

Bingo! Now that’s the ticket! You nailed it.

Yes, we skipped right over all that working class aspiration stuff and learned that Joe’s real first name is (gasp!) Samuel.

OK, what’s the point? I know a guy named Lido James S. who goes by “Jim.” I’ll take it on faith that both Lido James S. and Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher know their own names – Jim and Joe, respectively.

Oh yeah, and for years, Barack Obama went by the name “Barry.” So, what’s in a name?

We also learned that “Joe the Plumber” doesn’t have a “plumber’s license.”

Well, it turns out you don’t NEED a plumber’s license to work as an apprentice with a licensed plumber. Apparently Joe’s working on the license and would need it to buy the business he currently works for.

We also learned that “Joe the Plumber” has a tax lien registered against him. According to Barb Losie, deputy clerk of the Lucas County Court of Common Pleas, "There is a judgment lien against him for nonpayment of income tax," adding, “There is a 99 percent chance he doesn't know about the lien, unless he did a credit report or was ready to pay his taxes."

Losie said Wurzelbacher owes $1,182 from January 2007, but no action has been taken against him outside of filing the lien.

What we didn’t learn from the MSM (although it’s widely available online thanks to the likes of Instapundit, Michelle Malkin and the Volokh Conspiracy to name but a few) Barack Obama has his own tax problems, ones that are far more ethically serious than “Joe the Plumber’s.”

According to Jim Lindgren at the Volokh Conspiracy, “Just to remind you, Illinois prohibits state legislators from “taking speaking fees, and Barack Obama reported speaking fees.”

“Apparently, as an Illinois state legislator through 2004, Barack was prohibited from taking honoraria for speaking under the Illinois Governmental Ethics Act.

“But what about Barack Obama’s 2000 and 2002 tax returns?

“2000: On his 2000 Schedule C-EZ, Barack reported that he received $16,500 as a “Foundation director/Educational speaker.”

“2001: On his 2001 Schedule C-EZ, Barack reported $98,158 from a Chicago law firm, Miner, Barnhill, for “Legal services/attorney” (and nothing for speaking).

“2002: On his 2002 Schedule C, Barack reported $34,491 for “LEGAL SERVCES / SPEAKING FEES.”
These “speaking fees” are in addition to the amounts that Barack was paid as an employee, a lecturer at the University of Chicago, reported on the first page of his 1040s.

“The Illinois Governmental Ethics Act (apparently last changed in 1995) provides:
(5 ILCS 420/2-110)

“Sec. 2-110. Honoraria.
(a) No member of the General Assembly shall accept any honorarium.
(b) As used in this Section:

"Honorarium" means a payment of money to a member of the General Assembly for an appearance or speech . . . .”

OK, so we’ve REALLY learned that both “Joe the Plumber” and Barry...I mean Barack Obama have had self-imposed name changes and both have ongoing tax problems!

OK, aside from all that trivia, isn’t there some room to address the crux of what Joe Wurzelbacher’s exchange with Obama meant?

Liberals scream, “Sam the non-plumber would benefit from Obama’s tax plan.”

Of course that’s based on Joe’s current status, as a $45,000/year plumber’s assistant and it discounts his aspirations, which is what he based his question about Obama’s tax policy on.

Moreover, like the vast majority of decent, hardworking Americans, Joe doesn’t want to benefit at someone else’s expense, as he replied to those reporters who told him of his Obama-plan windfall, “If you believed [Obama], I’d be receiving his tax cuts, but I don’t look at it that way,” he said. “He’d still be hurting others.”

No wonder the Left reviles Joe Wurzelbacher, he’s a real working American!

Thursday, October 16, 2008

From the Mouth of a French-woman







Christine Lagarde, France’s Minister of Finance, recently sounded a LOT more like Ronald Reagan than Jaques Chirac.

Last week, when addressing a Council on Foreign Relations gathering in New York City, she was asked, by an American, if the current global credit crisis “indicates a failure of Capitalism so deep, that even in its current regulated form, it cannot work,” she responded with, “Well, there are really only two economic models, Capitalism (the market-based economy) and Communism (the command economy) and history has proven that one of those, Communism (the command economy), cannot work. It fails in regard to undervaluing capital investment, underestimating and misunderstanding consumer demand and ultimately, it does a very poor job of making people happy, which is government’s primary function – the well-being of the people.”

WoW! While I disagree with Ms. Lagarde's "only two economic models," given that between the free market and the command economy is the regulated market economy, which has become the standard for Western industrial nations today. Still, it seems that at least SOME French are more economically literate than far too MANY Americans!

Friday, October 10, 2008

EVIDENCE FOUND!!! Clinton administration's

Here's yet ANOTHER great look at how the current credit crisis started. They call what I've termed credit-socialism, "loan affirmative action" and that's a fair enough term for it. Bottomline, brokers made money off of unsafe loans, unfit borrowers received loans they shouldn't have qualified for...and WE PAID...or I should say, WE'RE ABOUT TO PAY FOR IT ALL!

Thursday, October 9, 2008

The Misery Index...







Get familiar with this term kids, it was something that all of us, who lived through the 1970s knew very well.

It’s about to come to the foreground again. Yippeee!

The Misery Index is a compilation of the prevailing inflation rate and the unemployment rate to give a picture of the nation’s “misery.” These are the two most basic economic indicators – giving a snapshot of (1) at what rate the costs of goods and services increasing and (2) how many people are out of work.

The misery index was created by economist Arthur Okun (pictured above), an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960's. It’s simply the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. It’s assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation combine to create economic and social costs/”misery” within an economy.

Suffice to say, with annual unemployment rates over 20%, the 1930s are unquestionable the worst decade for Misery and the “Misery Index,” so most data collected starts with post-WW II America.

Truman finished off FDR’s last term in 1948 with an 11.5 Index.

His own term saw 1949 come in at 5.1, 1950 at 6.3, 1951 at 11.2 and 1952 at 5.3.

To date, Dwight D. Eisenhower and William J. Clinton were the only post-WW II U.S. Presidents to preside over eight straight years of single digit Misery Indexes, with Ike dodging a bullet in 1958 when it hit 9.6 and Bill Clinton dodging one in 1993 with a 9.7!

GW Bush would’ve been only the third U.S. President to preside over eight straight years of single digit Misery Indexes, but with the current Misery Index at around 9.88 and rising (August's was 11.47), that doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen for George W.

The only other two Presidents to preside over single digit Misery Indexes throughout their tenures were JFK (1961 = 7.8, 1962 = 6.8 and 1963 = 6.9) and LBJ, whose spending spree’s bills didn’t come due until the 1970s.

Richard Nixon’s first term saw the first double digit Misery Index since 1951, when 1970 came in with a rollicking 10.2. The Index spiked to a high of 11 during his last full year (1973) and spiked even more during 1974 (he resigned that July) hitting 16.7 for that year!

Things got even worse for poor Gerald Ford, who followed Nixon’s “We’re all Keynesians now” view through his thirty months. Under Ford the Misery Index surged to a whopping 17.7 in 1975 and was brought back down to 13.5 (actually 13.45) in 1976...Happy Birthday America!

Unfortunately for Americans, that 13.5 was going to be the BEST they were going to see in awhile!

Jimmy Carter, who ran as a “Center-Right Democrat” and governed as a far-Left Liberal, saw the Misery Index increase EVERY year of his administration, the FIRST and, to date, ONLY post-WW II U.S. President to hold that distinction.

Under Carter the Misery Index climbed from 13.6 (1977) to 13.7 (1978) to 17.07 in 1979 and finally all the way to 21 in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan ended Carter’s tenure and the reign of Keynesian policies in America.

Did Reaganism work?

Just look to the Misery Index. Reagan’s first term was the FIRST time a post-WW II U.S. President presided over four straight years of DECREASING Misery Indexes!

The Misery Index fell from 18 (17.97) in 1981 to 15.87 in ’82, to 12.82 in ’83, to 11.81 in ’84. It dropped to 10.74 in 1985 and then dropped off into the single digits over his last three years. That was the first three year stretch of single digit Misery Indexes since 1967 thru 1969.

George Bush Sr. presided over four straight years of double digit Misery Indexes and became only the second post-WW II U.S. President to do that, although his 10.6 four year average pales in comparison to the stultifying Misery of the Carter years that come in at a staggering 16.5!

Hmmmmm, come to think about it, that sought of puts the lie to the Clinton’s idiotic campaign slogan used against George Bush Sr.’s economy, “The Worst Economy Since the Great Depression,” doesn’t it?

Bill Clinton’s first two years had a combined two year average of 9.4 (9.9 and 8.8 respectively), but once the Gingrich Congress stepped in and cut government spending, his final six years saw an average annual Misery Index of just 7.3, the lowest average in THREE DECADES!

1998’s Misery Index of just 6.05 was the LOWEST since 1956!

Amazingly enough, G W Bush’s seven year annual average Misery Index (2001 thru 2007) is very close to Bill Clinton’s average annual Misery Index over his last seven years (leaving off his first, and worst 9.9 in 1993). Bush’s seven year average, to date is 7.9, compared to Clinton’s 7.5!

With 2008 looking like it’s going to approach 10 for the first time since 1992, Clinton and Bush’s eight year averages will probably be very close.

Incredibly enough Supply-Siders Clinton and Bush have combined to deliver FIFTEEN straight years of single digit Misery Indexes.

With 2008 teetering on the brink (it was 11.47 for August 2008), the year is averaging 9.98 through the first eight months, we COULD see the first double digit Misery Index since 1992.

Where do we go from here?

That’s anybody’s guess.

What we have currently is a Republican Gerald Ford running against a Democratic Jimmy Carter.

Anybody care for a 1970s redux?

Cause here it comes. That's why lessons like this are important. Those who don't know history, are indeed doomed to repeat it.
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