Friday, February 15, 2008

Super Bowl XLII as a 2008 Election Blueprint?

If you listen to the pundits, the Democrats, in 2008, sure look a lot like the New England Patriots did this year – an almost sure bet to go 19-0.

Likewise, the GOP looks a lot like the Giants, a team that has stumbled and bumbled their way into an apparent sacrificial match up.

But looks are often deceiving. They certainly were in Super Bowl XLII.

In fact, the Patriots did a lot more to appear almost “perfect” than the Democrats have. The current Reid-Pelosi Congress not only has lower approval ratings than the Frist-Delay Congress did, but even lower approval numbers than the Iraq-scarred, media-whipped G W Bush has now!

The Patriots rolled over their opponents in both the regular season and the playoffs with what appeared to be remarkable ease, while the Giants won a hard-scrabble wild-card seed, and without a hard-fought week 16 win in Buffalo, they stood a chance of not making the playoffs at all, and once they were in, each of their playoff wins were heart-stopping, upsets, of teams they were expected to lose to.

And it’s the same with the candidates. While Hillary and Barack both look sterling through the MSM’s filter, the GOP’s McCain looks, pretty much what he is (and what the Giants were) “the last man standing” on that side, in that Conference.

I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the Patriots were pretty much in the same position the Democrats are now. Nothing’s been expected of them, and they haven’t made any ponderous mistakes.

The bad thing, for both the Pats and Dems is that they both seem to have come to believe their hype. The Pats beat the Giants in the last game of the season (week 17/the 2006 Elections) but barely (38-35...and with most of their wins coming on the backs of Conservative Dems). Some astute football analysts had the Giants down as "the best match-up against the Patriots ("a team we know can give the Patriots a good game"), just as the current polls show McCain beating either Hillary or Obama head-to-head, but few picked the G-men to win. Moreover, the Democrats have not only had nothing expected of them, that’s exactly what they’ve delivered so far.

So the wiley politician, McCain, will take on either the first woman or the first bi-racial candidate in U.S. history. Hillary has huge negatives and will almost certainly have almost no shot at cracking the 50% barrier, almost assuring an extremely close election, while Obama, should he get the nod (and he SHOULD), will suddenly be scrutinized and his dreary “all is woe," message will begin to be viewed by an electorate, within a nation where a December Gallup poll showed that an astounding 84% of Americans report being satisfied with their lives.

Again, with McCain’s upbeat, Supply Side message, a showdown between a Liberal “gloom & doomer” will almost certainly be as tight as that contrast will be interesting.

In fact, McCain looks very much like the Giants, a team who couldn’t win at home and had to become “road warriors,” to reach the playoffs, and a candidate who couldn’t initially win with his own Party’s Conservative base, but had a talent for attracting Independents and Moderates (appx 30% of the electorate)...the similarities are striking.

With almost every election being decided by the 30% moderate middle, a group that overwhelmingly views McCain favorably, as well as one that is largely apolitical, it would not be at all surprising to see the election of 2008 mirror the Super Bowl of February 3rd, 2008 in that both seemed destined to be a lot closer than initial observers thought.

I bet that one right too.

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