Friday, February 15, 2008

Is an Amnesty Bill on the 2008 Docket?

Astoundingly enough, even as millions of Americans flooded Congress with calls and emails to stifle the recent McCain-Kennedy (“Shamnesty”) Bill, Liberal House Democrats are looking at an election year Amnesty Bill!

Crazy, or desperate?

Could this be designed to hurt McCain with Hispanics, now that he's honor bound to adhere to his recent enforcement first pledge?

Or is it rooted in a fear by Liberal Dems that local get-tough enforcement measures, in states like Oklahoma and Arizona, might already be having a surprising effect and encouraging other states to do the same?

The new E-Verify program, now being used in Arizona, make it possible for an employer to check a prospective employee’s social security number of taxpayer ID in seconds and for free!

Arizona and Oklahoma both require that now and illegal immigrants are fleeing both states in droves and self-deporting at record levels.

Or is it that even with our current meager enforcement measures, the growth rate of the U.S. Mexican-born population has dropped by nearly half to 4.2% in 2007 from about 8% in 2005 and 2006 and Democrats seeing a demographic they view (misakenly, or not) as favorable for them?

With over 75% of Americans polled, favoring a strict "Enforcement First" policy on illegal immigration, and with even a large majority of Hispanic-American citizens opposing illegal immigration, it is certainly politically risky proposition for Democrats. Moreover, the majority of Hispanic-American citizens tend to be MORE socially Conservative than native born American citizens, and that doesn't bode well for long-term Democratic designs on that demographic.

The good news is that Conservative Democrats have, so far, stymied the Amnesty Bill, in favor of an enforcement-first Bill penned by Heath Shuler.

Conservative Democrats and Democratic leaders are in a tough position. Besides NEEDING a Bill “they can run on,” Conservative Dems (the same group that is steadfastly supporting the Senate Bill on FISA) are in no position to support any kind of Amnesty Bill, while Democratic leaders have to fear that if the Liberals get their way, they may well hand back all those hard-won Mid-west and Southern 2006 seats to the GOP.

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