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Captain Capitalism makes an interesting observation, along WITH an ACCOMPANYING CHART (see above)!
It seems that most previous recessions were preceded by rising prices in commodities and we all know that commodity prices have been rising through most of the past year.
So far, as the Captain notes, “Everything except GDP points toward recession.”
To date we haven’t even had ONE quarter of negative economic growth, if the coming quarter (ending in September) remains in the black, a second straight quarter would come, at the earliest, with end of the first quarter of the next administration.
If current falling oil prices, continue to bolster the dollar and raise stocks, while also putting a downward pressure on inflation, it’s entirely possible that we may actually see a dramatically improving economy by the end of the year...and the end of the eight year Bush administration.
THEN, the earliest we could expect the possibility of a recession would be the end of the second (June, 2009) and more likely, the third quarter (September, 2009), or even the fourth quarter (December, 2009).
Given that the “first six months of any new administration are attributed to the previous administration," THAT would bode very well for the Bush administration, as given that, the next administration would begin taking responsibility for the economy with at the end of the second quarter (June, 2009).
It would be deliciously ironic, IF the coming recession (the gathering economic storm, investors have long been warning about) coincided with an Obama Presidency, coupled with a Democratic Congress.
Beyond June of 2009, no one will want to hear about an “inherited recession, “ or even “inherited poor fundamentals.” No, with Democratic tax policies almost certainly set to re-incentivize savings (deferring more income) among the top 10% of income earners, the next major economic crisis may actually hit those who deserve it – the Liberal Democrats.
Could Barrack Obama already be poised to become “the next Jimmy Carter?”
SEE The Captain at: http://captaincapitalism.blogspot.com/2008/07/everything-but-gdp-points-to-recession.html
