Get familiar with this term kids, it was something that all of us, who lived through the 1970s knew very well.
It’s about to come to the foreground again. Yippeee!
The Misery Index is a compilation of the prevailing inflation rate and the unemployment rate to give a picture of the nation’s “misery.” These are the two most basic economic indicators – giving a snapshot of (1) at what rate the costs of goods and services increasing and (2) how many people are out of work.
The misery index was created by economist Arthur Okun (pictured above), an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960's. It’s simply the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. It’s assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation combine to create economic and social costs/”misery” within an economy.
Suffice to say, with annual unemployment rates over 20%, the 1930s are unquestionable the worst decade for Misery and the “Misery Index,” so most data collected starts with post-WW II America.
Truman finished off FDR’s last term in 1948 with an 11.5 Index.
His own term saw 1949 come in at 5.1, 1950 at 6.3, 1951 at 11.2 and 1952 at 5.3.
To date, Dwight D. Eisenhower and William J. Clinton were the only post-WW II U.S. Presidents to preside over eight straight years of single digit Misery Indexes, with Ike dodging a bullet in 1958 when it hit 9.6 and Bill Clinton dodging one in 1993 with a 9.7!
GW Bush would’ve been only the third U.S. President to preside over eight straight years of single digit Misery Indexes, but with the current Misery Index at around 9.88 and rising (August's was 11.47), that doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen for George W.
The only other two Presidents to preside over single digit Misery Indexes throughout their tenures were JFK (1961 = 7.8, 1962 = 6.8 and 1963 = 6.9) and LBJ, whose spending spree’s bills didn’t come due until the 1970s.
Richard Nixon’s first term saw the first double digit Misery Index since 1951, when 1970 came in with a rollicking 10.2. The Index spiked to a high of 11 during his last full year (1973) and spiked even more during 1974 (he resigned that July) hitting 16.7 for that year!
Things got even worse for poor Gerald Ford, who followed Nixon’s “We’re all Keynesians now” view through his thirty months. Under Ford the Misery Index surged to a whopping 17.7 in 1975 and was brought back down to 13.5 (actually 13.45) in 1976...Happy Birthday America!
Unfortunately for Americans, that 13.5 was going to be the BEST they were going to see in awhile!
Jimmy Carter, who ran as a “Center-Right Democrat” and governed as a far-Left Liberal, saw the Misery Index increase EVERY year of his administration, the FIRST and, to date, ONLY post-WW II U.S. President to hold that distinction.
Under Carter the Misery Index climbed from 13.6 (1977) to 13.7 (1978) to 17.07 in 1979 and finally all the way to 21 in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan ended Carter’s tenure and the reign of Keynesian policies in America.
Did Reaganism work?
Just look to the Misery Index. Reagan’s first term was the FIRST time a post-WW II U.S. President presided over four straight years of DECREASING Misery Indexes!
The Misery Index fell from 18 (17.97) in 1981 to 15.87 in ’82, to 12.82 in ’83, to 11.81 in ’84. It dropped to 10.74 in 1985 and then dropped off into the single digits over his last three years. That was the first three year stretch of single digit Misery Indexes since 1967 thru 1969.
George Bush Sr. presided over four straight years of double digit Misery Indexes and became only the second post-WW II U.S. President to do that, although his 10.6 four year average pales in comparison to the stultifying Misery of the Carter years that come in at a staggering 16.5!
Hmmmmm, come to think about it, that sought of puts the lie to the Clinton’s idiotic campaign slogan used against George Bush Sr.’s economy, “The Worst Economy Since the Great Depression,” doesn’t it?
Bill Clinton’s first two years had a combined two year average of 9.4 (9.9 and 8.8 respectively), but once the Gingrich Congress stepped in and cut government spending, his final six years saw an average annual Misery Index of just 7.3, the lowest average in THREE DECADES!
1998’s Misery Index of just 6.05 was the LOWEST since 1956!
Amazingly enough, G W Bush’s seven year annual average Misery Index (2001 thru 2007) is very close to Bill Clinton’s average annual Misery Index over his last seven years (leaving off his first, and worst 9.9 in 1993). Bush’s seven year average, to date is 7.9, compared to Clinton’s 7.5!
With 2008 looking like it’s going to approach 10 for the first time since 1992, Clinton and Bush’s eight year averages will probably be very close.
Incredibly enough Supply-Siders Clinton and Bush have combined to deliver FIFTEEN straight years of single digit Misery Indexes.
With 2008 teetering on the brink (it was 11.47 for August 2008), the year is averaging 9.98 through the first eight months, we COULD see the first double digit Misery Index since 1992.
Where do we go from here?
That’s anybody’s guess.
What we have currently is a Republican Gerald Ford running against a Democratic Jimmy Carter.
Anybody care for a 1970s redux?
Cause here it comes. That's why lessons like this are important. Those who don't know history, are indeed doomed to repeat it.
It’s about to come to the foreground again. Yippeee!
The Misery Index is a compilation of the prevailing inflation rate and the unemployment rate to give a picture of the nation’s “misery.” These are the two most basic economic indicators – giving a snapshot of (1) at what rate the costs of goods and services increasing and (2) how many people are out of work.
The misery index was created by economist Arthur Okun (pictured above), an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960's. It’s simply the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. It’s assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation combine to create economic and social costs/”misery” within an economy.
Suffice to say, with annual unemployment rates over 20%, the 1930s are unquestionable the worst decade for Misery and the “Misery Index,” so most data collected starts with post-WW II America.
Truman finished off FDR’s last term in 1948 with an 11.5 Index.
His own term saw 1949 come in at 5.1, 1950 at 6.3, 1951 at 11.2 and 1952 at 5.3.
To date, Dwight D. Eisenhower and William J. Clinton were the only post-WW II U.S. Presidents to preside over eight straight years of single digit Misery Indexes, with Ike dodging a bullet in 1958 when it hit 9.6 and Bill Clinton dodging one in 1993 with a 9.7!
GW Bush would’ve been only the third U.S. President to preside over eight straight years of single digit Misery Indexes, but with the current Misery Index at around 9.88 and rising (August's was 11.47), that doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen for George W.
The only other two Presidents to preside over single digit Misery Indexes throughout their tenures were JFK (1961 = 7.8, 1962 = 6.8 and 1963 = 6.9) and LBJ, whose spending spree’s bills didn’t come due until the 1970s.
Richard Nixon’s first term saw the first double digit Misery Index since 1951, when 1970 came in with a rollicking 10.2. The Index spiked to a high of 11 during his last full year (1973) and spiked even more during 1974 (he resigned that July) hitting 16.7 for that year!
Things got even worse for poor Gerald Ford, who followed Nixon’s “We’re all Keynesians now” view through his thirty months. Under Ford the Misery Index surged to a whopping 17.7 in 1975 and was brought back down to 13.5 (actually 13.45) in 1976...Happy Birthday America!
Unfortunately for Americans, that 13.5 was going to be the BEST they were going to see in awhile!
Jimmy Carter, who ran as a “Center-Right Democrat” and governed as a far-Left Liberal, saw the Misery Index increase EVERY year of his administration, the FIRST and, to date, ONLY post-WW II U.S. President to hold that distinction.
Under Carter the Misery Index climbed from 13.6 (1977) to 13.7 (1978) to 17.07 in 1979 and finally all the way to 21 in 1980, the year Ronald Reagan ended Carter’s tenure and the reign of Keynesian policies in America.
Did Reaganism work?
Just look to the Misery Index. Reagan’s first term was the FIRST time a post-WW II U.S. President presided over four straight years of DECREASING Misery Indexes!
The Misery Index fell from 18 (17.97) in 1981 to 15.87 in ’82, to 12.82 in ’83, to 11.81 in ’84. It dropped to 10.74 in 1985 and then dropped off into the single digits over his last three years. That was the first three year stretch of single digit Misery Indexes since 1967 thru 1969.
George Bush Sr. presided over four straight years of double digit Misery Indexes and became only the second post-WW II U.S. President to do that, although his 10.6 four year average pales in comparison to the stultifying Misery of the Carter years that come in at a staggering 16.5!
Hmmmmm, come to think about it, that sought of puts the lie to the Clinton’s idiotic campaign slogan used against George Bush Sr.’s economy, “The Worst Economy Since the Great Depression,” doesn’t it?
Bill Clinton’s first two years had a combined two year average of 9.4 (9.9 and 8.8 respectively), but once the Gingrich Congress stepped in and cut government spending, his final six years saw an average annual Misery Index of just 7.3, the lowest average in THREE DECADES!
1998’s Misery Index of just 6.05 was the LOWEST since 1956!
Amazingly enough, G W Bush’s seven year annual average Misery Index (2001 thru 2007) is very close to Bill Clinton’s average annual Misery Index over his last seven years (leaving off his first, and worst 9.9 in 1993). Bush’s seven year average, to date is 7.9, compared to Clinton’s 7.5!
With 2008 looking like it’s going to approach 10 for the first time since 1992, Clinton and Bush’s eight year averages will probably be very close.
Incredibly enough Supply-Siders Clinton and Bush have combined to deliver FIFTEEN straight years of single digit Misery Indexes.
With 2008 teetering on the brink (it was 11.47 for August 2008), the year is averaging 9.98 through the first eight months, we COULD see the first double digit Misery Index since 1992.
Where do we go from here?
That’s anybody’s guess.
What we have currently is a Republican Gerald Ford running against a Democratic Jimmy Carter.
Anybody care for a 1970s redux?
Cause here it comes. That's why lessons like this are important. Those who don't know history, are indeed doomed to repeat it.
