Friday, July 18, 2008

Commodities Prices Pointing Toward a Coming Recession???

Captain Capitalism makes an interesting observation, along WITH an ACCOMPANYING CHART (see above)!

It seems that most previous recessions were preceded by rising prices in commodities and we all know that commodity prices have been rising through most of the past year.

So far, as the Captain notes, “Everything except GDP points toward recession.”

To date we haven’t even had ONE quarter of negative economic growth, if the coming quarter (ending in September) remains in the black, a second straight quarter would come, at the earliest, with end of the first quarter of the next administration.

If current falling oil prices, continue to bolster the dollar and raise stocks, while also putting a downward pressure on inflation, it’s entirely possible that we may actually see a dramatically improving economy by the end of the year...and the end of the eight year Bush administration.

THEN, the earliest we could expect the possibility of a recession would be the end of the second (June, 2009) and more likely, the third quarter (September, 2009), or even the fourth quarter (December, 2009).

Given that the “first six months of any new administration are attributed to the previous administration," THAT would bode very well for the Bush administration, as given that, the next administration would begin taking responsibility for the economy with at the end of the second quarter (June, 2009).

It would be deliciously ironic, IF the coming recession (the gathering economic storm, investors have long been warning about) coincided with an Obama Presidency, coupled with a Democratic Congress.

Beyond June of 2009, no one will want to hear about an “inherited recession, “ or even “inherited poor fundamentals.” No, with Democratic tax policies almost certainly set to re-incentivize savings (deferring more income) among the top 10% of income earners, the next major economic crisis may actually hit those who deserve it – the Liberal Democrats.

Could Barrack Obama already be poised to become “the next Jimmy Carter?”

SEE The Captain at:


defiant_infidel said...

Great points and I heartily agree. BUT, as we are already in a "recession by popular decree" based upon air, rather than facts, why should we have any expectation of liberals giving recognition to anything else that is reality based?

Look at the last few days declining oil prices, for example, beginning when Mr. Bush approached the podium to make his speech last Monday. Yesterday, I watched a Dem repeatedly deny that the actual drilling for oil in the OCS would have "any effect whatsoever" on the price of oil "for many years to come". The interviewer (I got to find that video) kept pointing out that the mere mentioning of the lift of the drilling ban by the Prez. had caused the speculators to begin pulling their investments in futures, resulting in the largest four day drop of oil pricing in history. He frustratingly continued to deny this plain fact and returned to backing a feel good release of our strategic oil reserves... all this as Israel prepares to bomb the crap out of Iran... a coming REAL emergency.

These people are simply agenda driven, power mongering imbeciles. Facts mean absolutely nothing to them.

JMK said...

I don't expect the Liberals to acknowledge any such thing, although the MSM has been as critical of Liberals when in office as Conservatives.

Even Nixon was never savaged as much as Carter was at least for ineptitude and the "economic malaise."

Sure, Nixon didn't have those problems, but he was paranoid and he was a Keynesian (socialist) - "wage & price controls," etc.

I think some hard times are inevitable. Supply Side (market-driven_ policies have been so successful, that an entire generation has come to take them for granted and it seems that they most learn the painful lessons of the 1970s all over again.

The Dems control Congress and seem poised to let the Bus "across the board" tax cuts expire and that along with a rising Cap Gains hike will surely both reduce investments and tax revenues.

Hopefully, it will be a short, painful lesson for us all.

That seems the best we can hope for.

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